India Stock Market and Global Economy

A commentary by Lee Kachroo


Posted by lpkachroo on November 9, 2008

India: 2009 GDP growth, who to believe?

We have the following conflicting stories thanks to

From Business Standard: Indian economy to grow 7-7.5% next year: PM

From Financial Express: Realty prices to fall 50 says SBI chief
OP Bhatt, chairman of State Bank of India (SBI), the country’s largest bank, expects 50% correction in the housing sector prices in the country. “In India we may witness up to 50% correction in pricing in the mortgage markets. If that happens, it’s good news for the Indian banking system as NPAs would reduce and new business would fall-in,’’. Joydeep Sengupta, director, McKinsey & Compan said the overall impact of the global volatility would enhance the capital requirement of the Indian banking system, which will need $70-80 billion in the next four years to sustain the India growth story. (Where will this come from? Retained earnings- NOT…Lee)

From Economic Times: Slowdown is here: Morgan Stanley The investment bank’s sample of 105 companies reported a 29% fall in net earnings for the quarter ended September 2008, an all time low. This compares with a trailing five-year quarterly average growth of 28%.. . . at the sector level, the best performances came from Utilities and Technology. The laggards versus the aggregate numbers were Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Healthcare. Save for Technology and Financials, all sectors reported a slippage in operating margins YoY.  (Falling earnings, where will the investment monies come from for growth? – Lee)

From Hindu Business Line: Slowdown effect: Container train operators start ‘parking’ Many operators now prefer to park their rolling stock assets in their own terminals or the Indian Railways’ yards — rather than running empty rakes (since cargo availability has gone down).. . . while companies such as Concor, Gatewayrail (a subsidiary of Gateway Distriparks) and Adanis have their own terminals where they can park their rakes, others have to depend on the Railways infrastructure.. . . two container train operators whom Business Line spoke to pointed out that compared to the cargo availability in September, in October it has decreased by about 20 per cent for their companies.  (Cargo availability declining..growth?-Lee)

For the fiscal year 2010, the GDP growth would come down to 6.5% – CLSA
The next nine-months is going to be a white-knuckle ride for the Indian economy.  However, the Indian business cycle will be the first to trough in the region and we are expecting this to happen in mid-2009.

Either the  PM is aware of something that industry is ignoring, or the PM is talking his book and campaigning for votes.

With Congress politicians you have to embrace the adage: ‘Fool me once shame on thee, fool me twice shame on me‘.  Sorry Mr. PM, in four years you have taught me to be cynical of everything you and cronies espouse.


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